Dale wins Texas

Last Updated on Saturday, 12 December 2009 19:06 Written by DaleReynolds Saturday, 14 November 2009 17:14

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Alrighty folks, it is gut-wrenching time here for the Sprint Cup series! There are just TWO countem...TWO races left in the 2009 season! Dude where did the season go? Last thing I knew it was time to start at Daytona!

With the end of the season comes the crunching of numbers into the calculator, mostly points-wise. However, I am here to do all the hard work for you. You dont have to look it up because I already did (haha Webber-ism there)

The Sprint Cup title has really come down to three people as the Chase hits Phoenix. DaleReynolds24, Mwils1 and Kelley1968. Two are from the state of Connecticut, while the other currently resides in Texas. One is still just a teen. The other two; hard-working family men. All equally love racing. One is a Jeff Gordon fan. Another was a long-time Dale Earnhardt Sr. fan and the other is a Dale Jr. fan.

195 points is the number. Or in this case, 390 is the magical number, being that it is the most possible points anyone can gain in 2 races. With that known, DART88, Abbotttazz (your 2 time defending champion), Purity and TripleX have NO POSSIBLE SHOT at winning the championship, therefore for all intents and purposes, eliminated.

Here's the MAIN rundown.


DaleReynolds24 6340
kelley1968 6262 -78
Mwils1 6245 -95

Heading into Phoenix, Dale has a seemingly comfortable lead after his big win at Texas. Cutting right to the Chase, if Kelley wins and dominates both races that gives him a maximum of 6,652 points.

Now subtract the 6,652 points from Dale's 6,340 and that leaves 312 points. Dale, no matter what, can clinch the championship if he scores 312 points after Homestead. That's all he needs.

On average per race, he needs 156 points. 156 is equivillant to...
- 4th place with no laps led
- 5th place with some laps led
- 6th place with most laps led
basically anywhere in the top 5 is a very good outlook for Dale from here on in.

Now, as far as the 78 point defecit Kelley has, he would need to gain, on average, 39 points per race. If Kelley wins and leads most laps, he needs Dale to finish outside the top 5 in both races.

Now over onto Mwils1. Mwils is 95 points behind. That means, on average he needs to gain 8.5 points per race on Kelley, while ALSO gaining 47.5 points on average on Dale to sneak away with his first series championship!

The 47.5 points is an equivillant of this...Mwils can win and lead most laps the next two racs, Kelley can finish 2nd and right in the first race lose his 2nd place to Mwils. But Mwils would have to see Dale finish no better than 8th the next two races in order to sneak away with this one.

Now let's go onto Phoenix. By results of the last Phoenix race as a set for prediction of how they will run, Dale finished 3rd and led most laps. Kelley finished 6th with 5 bonus points. Mwils finished 8th with 5 bonus points. Using this bench mark, this is how the points would look heading into Homestead

DaleReynolds24 6515
Kelley1968 6417 -98
Mwils1 6392 -123

At this rate, Dale would need to finish at least 20th no matter what anyone else does to clinch his first title. Mwils would need to gain 25 points to TIE Kelley for 2nd place, anything more than 25 to beat Kelley at Homestead.

The way the numbers add up, Dale looks very good for winning his first championship!

But then again, that's why we race them and we don't use the statistics!!!

HOLD ON TO YOUR WHEELS AND BELTS (and for some, their nuts) CAUSE ITS GONNA BE A WAR UNTIL THE END!!!!!!